You may think I’m losing my mind by trying to make a connection between two of my favorites: politics and baseball. But, take this for what it’s worth. The same stats guy who shocked the sports world when he predicted that the AL’s worst baseball team, the Tampa Rays, would improve by at least 22 games this season is the same guy who is predicting an Obama victory. (Not a baseball fan? The Rays shocked baseball and are now in the second round of the baseball playoffs. Not bad for a worst-to-first story.) He’s making this up. He created this crazy-complicated statistical model that runs tons of scenarios. Based on those models, there’s a 90% chance that Obama will prevail on Election Day.
If you don’t believe me, check it out at www.fivethirtyeight.com. If you’re not reading this, you don’t know what you’re missing. For sure, add it to your daily reading list. It’s fascinating stuff.